A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
