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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence is handed the prize. However, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest upset.

However this year's field is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent also-rans rising in unison. Under an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

Still